The problem isn’t that people don’t reason. They do reason. But their arguments aim to support their conclusions, not ours.

Due diligence

Due diligence, hard work, discipline combine with patience and consistency and the realization of the "right type of thinking" can lead us to achieve a result with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking high, enormous and unconscious risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance

Courtesy of Aaron Bornstein 07/10/05

Courtesy of Aaron Bornstein 07/10/05

An engineer, a mathematician, and a physicist went to the races one Saturday and laid their money down. Commiserating in the bar after the race, the engineer says, "I don't understand why I lost all my money. I measured all the horses and calculated their strength and mechanical advantage and figured out how fast they could run..."

The physicist interrupted him: "...but you didn't take individual variations into account. I did a statistical analysis of their previous performances and bet on the horses with the highest probability of winning..."

"...so if you're so hot why are you broke?" asked the engineer. But before the argument can grow, the mathematician takes out his pipe and they get a glimpse of his well-fattened wallet. Obviously here was a man who knows something about horses. They both demanded to know his secret.

"Well," he says, between puffs on the pipe, "first I approximated all the horses as identical spheres..."

DISCUSSIONS race 7 no.5 lizarre

DISCUSSIONS

REPLY

race 7 no.5 lizarre

mangocharliePosted 2 days ago	Race 7 No.5 Lizarre This time around will Lizarre be on board? Gentlemen - Your views please! (Exoneration Clauses (if not on board))
Larry Foley Top Tipster! Posted 2 days ago	i thought his run in the cup was as ok but given every chance by saimee down on the rails. but gee there are some form horses in tonights race. not top three for me but happy to be wrong mango.
sureshPosted 2 days ago	The fact that Vorster gets on board and with the addition of blinkers is a boost for win...
mangocharliePosted 2 days ago	Thanks Mate Larry and Mate suresh for the reply Anyway the said animal tried very on both occasions:- HORSES’TEST/PRACTICE THURSDAY, 22 NOVEMBER 2012 1 TEST SNTC:232/2012–09:30 HRS-1000 METRES (TRACK NO. 2 POLY)GOING GOOD Trial No,1 http://www.turfclub.com.sg/MediaCenter/VideoGallery/Pages/TrialVi... http://videos.turfclub.com.sg/2012/20121122SR01.mp4
mangocharliePosted 2 days ago	HORSES’ TEST / PRACTICE THURSDAY, 22 NOVEMBER 2012 1 TEST SNTC: 232/2012 – 09:30 HRS - 1000 METRES (TRACK NO. 2 POLY) Trial No.1 HORSES’ TEST / PRACTICE THURSDAY, 01 NOVEMBER 2012 3 PRACTICE SNTC: 216/2012 – 09:50 HRS - 1000 METRES (TRACK NO. 2 POLY) GOING GOOD Trial No.3 Apologies not able to put up the trials video here.
atwcPosted 2 days ago	mate mango. i think larry's spot on with the forms around lizarre. for me, vorster and blink may not necessary be the x-factor. but as the great man kibby puts it, this race is a bit like wrestlemania in which the head, heart and gut are trying to pin-down each other. the head's going for nandowra, the heart's with fulton whilst the gut is all tenzing (some decent form this prep and compare his KSB run over 1800m with lizarre's raffles cup on the same 21-10 day in terms of the going, time, and LBW). good luck, nevertheless.
mangocharliePosted 2 days ago	Mate atwc likewise on ur Fulton. Token bet only on Lizarre for me. Cheers
U1WhatBlueBirdPosted 2 days ago	I like what was written about Djuardin in STC website: - http://www.turfclub.com.sg/MediaCenter/RacingNews/Pages/LocalDeta...
U1WhatBlueBirdPosted 2 days ago	Sorry my post didn't come out right. My head like what my guts says about Djuardin. I hope Uncle Laurie will peg one back in the championship race. http://www.turfclub.com.sg/MediaCenter/RacingNews/Pages/LocalDeta...
U1WhatBlueBirdPosted 2 days ago	Still cannot work when I click on link. So here is the whole report. Team Laxon fighting for the Premiership Craig Brennan 29/11/2012 The Laurie Laxon stable will be looking to cut back the premiership lead of trainer Michael Freedman over the coming weekend. Freedman currently leads the premiership by two over Laxon – 72 to 70 – with six meetings of the season still to run. The Laxon stable will saddle four runners on Friday night against Freedman’s five while on Sunday Laxon will have six (of which three are in one race) against Freedman’s four runners. Dujardin and Danny Beasley combining for victory earlier this month. The pair team again in the Group 3 Colonial Chief Stakes on Friday night. Friday night sees the running of the Group 3 $175,000 Colonial Chief Stakes over 1700m which is the last feature event of the 2012 season. Freedman will saddle Nandowra, to be ridden by Joao Moreira, while Laxon has Dujardin engaged in the race on the Polytrack. With Laxon in New Zealand enjoying a freshen-up following last week’s New Zealand Bloodstock’s Ready To Run Sale, assistant trainer Shane Ellis has applied the blinkers to Dujardin’s gear in an effort to peg one win back on their arch rival. Dujardin was an unlucky third at his latest out on November 23, where he carried 59kg into third place behind Running Tall over 1400m, beaten 3.1 lengths. Ellis reported jockey Danny Beasley, who has the ride again on Friday night, believes the gelding should have won last time out after receiving a couple of checks during the race. “He pulled-up great after his last run,” said Ellis. “You can see that he’s dropping from 59kg to 53kg and Danny believes he should have won last time after receiving two checks in the run. “He’s got a good record on the Polytrack and we’ve put the blinkers on him after he trialled really well in them recently. “It would be nice to win the last feature race of the season but we know it won’t be an easy task as there are some nice horses in the race.” On Sunday the stable will be pinning their hopes in the three-year-old Huka Falls in the $75,000 Progress Stakes over 1200m on the Polytrack. Huka Falls will be opposed to the Freedman-trained Ronnie Brown, to be ridden by Stephen Baster, and who has a similar record to that of Huka Falls. A son of Align, Huka Falls has won three of his four starts and will have the services of Moreira in the saddle. Huka Falls won his first two starts on the Polytrack before striking a wet track when finishing in seventh place in the Jubilee Stakes over 1400m on September 30. He returned with victory in a Graduation Stakes over 1200m on October 26, accounting for Dragon King by three-and-three-quarter lengths. Ellis said Huka Falls had trialled well on Tuesday morning and importantly Moreira was happy with the hitout. “He pulled-up good after his trial,” said Ellis. “He’s drawn a good gate in a small field.” With another four meetings left following Sunday’s meeting, Ellis said there was a possibility that Huka Falls could again be seen in action before the end of the year. “We’ll see what happens on Sunday, but if he pulls-up alright there could be another race for him before the end of the year. “A wise man once said to me that they don’t make any money by standing in their box.” And that wise man also just happens to own Huka Falls himself! ​
Larry Foley Top Tipster! Posted 2 days ago	the horses might not earn while in their box but that won't stop lkl who will probably be sound asleep when that cheque is banked early sat morning nz time.
mirrors34Posted 2 days ago	track conditions guys? wet form or not?
mangocharliePosted 2 days ago	@mirrors - as of now no indication (all 9 races on Polytrack - i think it should be good)
mirrors34Posted 2 days ago	cheers mate, I went for good being poly... bit like geelong :)
longtzePosted 1 days ago	mark walker use shafiq-on flying fulton -guess he is confidence with this horse to win -no apprentice claim here, he still uses shafiq- livly outsider= goodpack

mangocharliePosted 1 days ago	Going Good (Info via the Advance Win Approximate Dividends)
mangocharliePosted 1 days ago	From SNTC website - CURRENT FORECAST Polytrack: Good (29°C)
mangocharliePosted 1 days ago	@atwc Congrats on ur F Fulton my friend.
longtzePosted 1 days ago	fc on fulton/goodpack pays me $52 =happy with result-cheers
mangocharliePosted 1 days ago	happy?? then shall we (you and i) celebrate with cakes, curry puff and soft drinks???
longtzePosted 1 days ago	buy you seafood @blk 82 marpherson lane-
kibPosted 1 days ago	mango mate. loves to catch up with you whenever i am in singapore OR you're in kl. seriously.
mangocharliePosted 14 hours ago	give me a shout or if i am around KL i will give u a shout.
mangocharliePosted 14 hours ago	give me a shout or if i am around KL i will give u a shout.
atwcPosted 11 hours ago	thanks, mate mango. it was the heart over the head and guts. decent payout too. yeah, give us a shout out if you're in town.