We almost always ignore the fact that, for one success story, there are many failures.

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We almost always ignore the fact that, for one success story, there are many failures. But we seldom hear about the failures (just like we never hear about the many theories that didn't fit the data). So it's all a game of numbers: out of 10,000 blokes, a few are statistically bound to be successful, even if they are nothing more than lucky idiots. The fact that they succeeded does not mean anything. It doesn't mean that they are bad blokes, but it doesn't mean that they are good blokes either, because on average somebody had to succeed.

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"The market has no respect for your station in life or for how smart an investor you have been until now. In fact, the market in this incarnation most prefers to humiliate those who remain smug or who appear to be telling it what to do and when to do it." - Tom Petruno in "Great Humbler Will End Agony When Everyone Knows Who's Boss" from the LA Times (3/18/01).

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“No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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"There is no Holy Grail. There is no perfect way to capture that move from $100/ounce to $800/ounce in gold." - John W Henry

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"Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools - by definition, they do not know that they belong to such a category." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb 

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But don't be fooled into thinking that the distinction is quite as clear- cut as all that. Victor Niederhoffer, one of New York's best-known market traders, who has worked with Mr Soros for many years, wants us to know that investment, speculation and even gambling are all in fact "first cousins".

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There ain't clipping coupons. No risk, no return. 

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If all it took to beat the markets is a Ph.D in mathematics, there'd be a hell of rich mathematicians out there. 

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"The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading." - Victor Sperandeo

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"Only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline do you get rational behavior." - Warren Buffett

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'The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything – you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, "Swing, you bum!" ' - Warren Buffett

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“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all.” - Warren Buffett

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Yes indeed. He (the genius) did calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.